The other day, someone asked me, "If Sheryl Kozens doesn't win, can you work with whomever does?"
My answer was simple, "Of course."
Endorsing a particular candidate doesn't preclude me from working with others. Indeed, I have run against three of the other sitting selectmen. I've no problem working with them, and have managed to rack up a few accomplishments too.
That said; what can we take away from this election?
The most obvious number is the turnout, which, while considerably less than last year, was not nearly as dismal as 2004. Our first table shows how the past six years stacked up.
Our next table shows the breakdown by precinct. It reveals that Precinct 1 was again the heavy hitter, turning out almost as many voters as precincts 7 and 8 combined.
If we dig deeper into the numbers and look only at the precincts of the 02536 area code (the third table), we can see that Ms. Kozens-Long won East Falmouth (which encompasses East Falmouth, Teaticket, Hatchville and Waquoit). No surprise, really. Unfortunately, it was not enough to offset the lead that Precinct 1 gave Ms. Freitag.
These breakdowns are merely academic, as we don't elect selectmen by zip codes. However, they do illustrate a few things:
1) Precinct 1 is the most consistent block of voters, and because of this, it will often decide elections - except when East Falmouth turns out.
2) East Falmouth (Precincts 3, 4, 7, 8, and 9) can and does turn out to vote. Not consistently, but it will. When it does, it will be the decider. Even if the individual precincts don't match the turnout of Precinct 1 (which sent 1,100 to the polls in 2008, versus Precinct 9, which sent 850), the numbers add up.
The obvious question for an aspiring selectman - How does one know when East Falmouth will turn out?
3 comments:
This might be a generalization, but the east is predominantly working class. What I hear from friends who live in those precincts is...'I don't have time to vote before work, or while I'm trying to get the kids off to school'. May elections occur when those of us in the trades and services, or in the hospitality industry or on the farm are ramping up before the Summer onslaught after a long Winter's drought. We're starting to get into late working hours to catch up, or we're running the kids around to activities and sports. We have lives to lead and bills to pay... not retired or living on a Trust or wealthy enough to be at our leisure or poking away at some prolonged ad absurdum research at one of the scientific institutions where we're not punching a clock. Some of us who have been digging holes in the ground or eating dirt behind a tiller or ripping roof shingles all day...just want to go have a cold one, catch up with friends for a minute, then go home , eat dinner, tuck the kids in, then fall asleep in the recliner in front of the Sox game. Unless you're involved in town politics, it's hard to stay informed about what's going on...and for obvious reasons, we feel a disconnect from the pabulum and rhetoric spewed forth in the Enterprise. The 02536 needs to feel like a stakeholder again. We need to shrug off that resignation that we can never overcome what THOSE people decide for the town. The question is, how do we accomplish it?
Brent- You claim that precint 1 carried the election. But remove precinct 1 from the results and the end result doesn't change.
Anonymous, I didn't say that Precinct 1 carried the election, rather that, "Precinct 1...will often decide elections." Precinct 1 gave Freitag a 388 vote lead over Kozens, and Flanagan a 72 vote lead over Kozens. However, without this precinct, Kozens now leads Flanagan by 8 votes and Freitag's lead plummets to 160 votes. Indeed, her overwhelming success in Precinct 1 belies her weakness elsewhere.
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