The ostrich syndrome

"The ostrich syndrome" is a term used by various people to refer to those who would rather remain ignorant of a problem. So it is with sewering in Falmouth. On all sides.

There are those who don't think that the nitrogen from our septic systems is a problem, "I have a Title V system; it works fine!"

And there are those who think that all we need to do is keep repeating the mantra, "We need to sewer!" and everyone will jump aboard.

And there are those who think that viable alternatives exist, "The XYZ system also removes nitrogen."

Everyone is talking, but no one is listening. It's a recipe for disaster.

New Silver Beach was delayed for a decade - 10 years - because the town failed to listen to every constituent. And that was a small sewer plant, designed to service a single neighborhood with a very obvious public health problem.

The comprehensive sewer plan we are now planning in order to alleviate the nitrogen issue is a much bigger task that will involve much bigger hurdles. The issue itself - nitrogen loading - is more complex and not as easy to explain. Cost estimates of $250-500 million have climbed to $350-580 million. The MEP model - upon which the entire need for sewers is predicated - is proprietary; we have limited access to it and don't even know how it works. And unlike New Silver Beach, this project is much larger than a single neighborhood, with potentially that many more opponents.

In spite of all this, there seems to be little effort directed toward anticipating and addressing issues and concerns. The outreach is based entirely on the mantra, "We have to sewer."

It is true, we do have to build a sewer system. However, there are two problems that we face:

1) We really don't know how big the sewer system needs to be, and
2) Not enough people are convinced that it is needed.

As previously noted, the size of the system is based on the MEP model, which is essentially a black box. Information is fed into it, and out comes a magic figure telling us how much nitrogen we have to remove. Sure, the state has "certified" the model, but the state is also telling us that we have to address the nitrogen. They are the prosecution, judge, jury and executioner all rolled up into one. And whether it is certified or not, we should be able to have an INDEPENDENT third party verify it. What if it is wrong?

As presented, the current plan is phased. The first phase is to sewer everything south of Route 28 in East Falmouth; the second includes significant parts of town north of Route 28. However, since we don't know how the model works, the first phase could be twice the size needed.

The latter point is best explained by this quote from Fred Salvucci, former Massachusetts Secretary of Transportation, who said, "You can win an election 51-49. You cannot get a large public works project underway with a 51-49 constituency. You need to have well over 90 percent of the public really with you, because there are so many procedural points where a project can be stopped that if any significant constituency at all feels offended and has a particular problem with a project, chances are they'll be able to stop it and particularly on the large project which has to be implemented through more than one administration. Every time you have a change in administration, you have a lot of changes in the people involved, and there's a lot of vulnerability in the project to having it derailed. So to get something to really happen, my view is you really need to have over 90 percent of the public really with you in a serious way and you have to go through a process of explaining the project. You can't really sell people. You can't sell ice to the Eskimos. The project has to sell itself, but you have to think through what the concerns of the various constituencies are going to be and why the project is good for them, or at least not bad for them, and get people on board. If you fail to do that, sooner or later the project is likely to get bogged down and stopped."

As I noted Monday night, we need to have a vigorous debate about all of the costs and issues. This must include why the alternatives won't work, if they won't work. We need to treat people with respect and talk to them as equals because unless we've got more than 90 percent behind it, there will be costly delays, a la New Silver Beach.

It is not - as Selectman Carey Murphy suggests - irresponsible to talk about the objections. It is irresponsible to build a $500 million sewer system when a $100 million sewer system would work. It is irresponsible to blindly accept what we are told without independent verification. It is irresponsible to stick our heads in the sand and hope that all of these questions just go away.